Bucher on Declining NBA Ratings
“...to the days when the Rules weren’t dramtically in favor of scoring, I never thought I’d get bored with up and down play and 120-point games, but that’s where I find myself.
The games are just not that compelling
The style of play has become patently predictable
”
It’s been widely reported that NBA ratings are down over the course of the last few seasons. It’s an ongoing trend over the last few years. TV numbers are pretty much down everywhere in this streaming age, but this recent dip has really got the attention and concern of NBA executives. Details were leaked about a proposal to alter both the regular season schedule and the playoff seeding. While the execs are looking at the format and presentation of the league, NBA reporter, Ric Bucher, took another approach. Instead of analyzing all of the exterior influences on viewer behavior, he considered the on-court product as a major deterrent to regular and returning viewers of the NBA game.
He considered the actual on-court product as a big factor in why fans may not be tuning in. I’ve always admired Ric’s commentary, and on his podcast he made some great points.
He referenced the general disdain for guys like James Harden, claiming, “the rules discourage team play”. I think he may’ve been right there too. The dominant ball handler that can end most possessions in a 3, drive, or free throws, trounces just about any offensive scheme that’s out there. Why should any significant action take place off-ball when you can just put the ball in the hands of a star.
Personally, I’m noticing a few things…
Where is the defense?
Defensive-minded players and big men in general are slowly being legislated out of the game. At one point the 4-out offensive philosophy was a revelation. 3-4 competent shooters around one nice post player made sense. That’s now been tossed in favor of a 5-out league. All 5 offensive players look to find a spot on the perimeter and prepare to shoot on a moment’s notice. Big men don’t always factor in to this. If they can’t shoot at a respectable rate, they get played off of the floor. It completely negates the advantages that come with their size. When they can’t handle or shoot, many teams are finding it hard to give more than 1-2 bigs consistent minutes. This leads us to Kristaps Porzingis at the top of the key trying to cross his man up to launch an off the dribble 3. His game doesn’t even reflect his insane 7’3” height. When he does enter the post against much smaller defenders, he struggles. So his game goes with the same inconsistent ebbs and flows of your average guard or forward. He’s living and dying by the 3, as opposed to establishing a stronger game close to the rim.
And it’s all for the numbers. Analytics may have actually killed the game. They’ve finally figured out in the last ten years that they should shoot as many 3’s as possible. The shot that was meant to make the ABA a little more exciting, is taking much of the excitement out of the NBA game. It was never intended to be the primary part of an offense.
Funny officiating
I think the officiating has done a lot for the offensive boon. Now more than ever, I notice jump shooters being protected by refs. It used to be Reggie Miller’s specialty, but now it’s fairly common to see that player bailed out by flaring their feet at the passing defender. I could also say that referees are working to encourage the three. Many drives to the rim are met with a quick travel call or a charge upon arrival to the painted area.
The missed shots
Nearly every team is taking more than 40% of their shots from behind the three-point line. The collective offensive strategy in the league is encouraging an increasing amount of 3 point attempts. The misses are okay because an average 35% shot from long range can compete with a 55% two-point shot. In fact, they would yield the same number of points over the course of 100 shots. Of course, the threes require less planning, and allow for more misses and somehow more points over an extended period of time. Is this line really benefitting the game in the way rulemakers believe? It seems like every night players are turning out box scores that we’ve never seen before, but it doesn’t feel like they’re performing so much better. Did the league over-correct for the low scoring in the 90’s and early 2000’s?
Uniform play
All of these things have shown why every team is shooting 3’s at an all-time high rate. The play style is uniform across the league, so if you don’t already have a vested interest in a given team or player you’ll be less likely to watch. Sadly, what this era has eliminated are the
Lost in all of this is the volatility and variance of the three-point shot. The Rockets have been a perfect example of this in the last few seasons. On nights when they’re hot, they are far and away one of the best teams in the league. When the threes aren’t dropping, they have no plan B, and they can get run off of the court by anybody.
It’s understandable that hardcore fans could grow frustrated with a game that has grown so consistent in its strategy and still so inconsistent in the results. We will all tune in for the playoffs, but what will get the casual fan to care about the regular season again? I think we could start with reconsidering our need for the three-point line.
